I love Mobile Operators: they are some of the richest companies in the corporate world. In a little more than a decade they became behemoth weighting heavily on all economies across continents. Their services, mostly unknown 15 years ago, are used by billions of people. These companies are packed with many smart
people who changed the way we work, interact and communicate.
What is very interesting is how these supposedly smart companies got hypnotized by Apple. If you remember the Jungle Book, you'll get the picture the same picture that I have of Kaa with his rolling eyes hypnotizing Mowgli. The whole story of Apple with mobile operators over the last 4 years is really how Apple managed to hypnotize the operators. Before getting to today's news which prompted this post, let's get back a few years ago at the launch of the IPhone. Back in 2007, Apple was a much smaller company producing Mac and IPod. The first version of the IPhone was a good product, different from existing solutions but with many limitations (weak camera, no multi-tasking, short battery life …). The genius of Steve Jobs was to convince Operators across the world to subsidize the handset at an unprecedented level and share part of their revenue. Operators were fine: cool products, very small volume for very high end customers. Not great for the bottom line but good for the branding. Interestingly, they made sure there was no direct competition on the market. In 2007 and most of 2008, Orange France would sell unlimited data plan only if you had an IPhone. When I asked the service agent why I couldn't buy unlimited data plan with Nokia, HTC or any other phone, the answer was approximately: "buy an IPhone". Not surprisingly, mobile browsing statistics were showing back then that IPhone users were using mobile internet much more ; well, having an unlimited data plan vs. paying 1€/Go does play a role too! Clearly, beyond product quality, operators were major players in the success of IPhone.
The IPhone was a success and the shipment went way beyond what the operators had in mind. Momentum set in, consumers got hooked on the products and its apps, as well as to deep subsidy Volume started picking up. What became apparent very quickly to all players in the industry is that the mobile operators were getting disintermediated from the payment value chain. They had created the most successful micro payment scheme with Premium SMS and later with other billing technology (IP Billing, Direct billing…). Of course, all that went away for IPhone users: you put your credit card in ITunes and you're done: no more billing through operators. Operators had kept their haircut on very high on operator billing: between 20% and 40% depending on country and many other factors. Of course, that significant tax limited, and still does, the growth and potential of operators billing. I remember interviewing an executive at a major European operator in 2008 on that topic. He was clear and disillusioned on the matter: yes they understood they were getting disintermediated but no they were not going to do anything as IPhone sales were helping the presentation of quarterly results. That is when I realized the hypnotization factor: the operators understood Apple's strategic objective was to transform them in dumb pipes subsidizing their handset but they wouldn't react and let Apple take the ball and run. I actually think most operators underestimated Apple and thought they were the ones in control. Actually, they were already under the spell and hadn't realized they had lost the customer relationship, the payment, the brand,… In one word, they had lost control.
The collision of news and announcement of the last 2 weeks is fascinating. Orange communicated how happy they were to be the number 2 sellers of IPhone in the world and that they'll want to continue pushing it. I would really challenge that this is good news for Orange. Considering how deeply subsidized the IPhone is, I wonder how long it will take them to break even with a modest increase in monthly ARPU. If you factor in, the added burden on the infrastructure due to mobile data traffic explosion, I really doubt this is good news for Orange's shareholder. Today, the French newspaper Les Echos published a great story on how Apple is ready to launch the sales of simcard and subscription directly via ITunes in partnership Gemalto. The bundled sales of handset with subscription would transform Apple in a MVNO pushing the disintermediation idea to its limit. Mobile Operators can focus on the maintenance of their antennas! The journalist ponders how and if the operators are going to resist. I think it is too late now: the momentum of Apple in mobile phones is amazing. The consumer awareness and demand is great. I am ready to bet that at least one operator per country will go with the new Apple model, forcing all the markets to go in this direction. It is a little late to wake up and realize what has been going on for the last 4 years. By the way, they have one great idea to counter Apple : push Google and Android. I am not sure Google is going to be soft and fuzzy and bow to their traditional ways… The mobile operators were the key winners of the 1995-2005 era, they won't be the winner or the decade to come.
Frederic Halley